Making free throws at a high-percentage is synonymous with winning for Syracuse basketball. Missing them is synonymous with losing.
Syracuse basketball (12-7, 5-3) has quietly re-entered the March Madness conversation.
Following an impressive 84-82 victory at Notre Dame on Wednesday night, the Orange were suddenly victors of four-straight in conference play, something we haven’t seen since the 2016-17 season when they won five straight over the likes of No. 6 FSU and No. 9 Virginia.
However, that team was among the last four teams not selected to receive bids to the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they were given the No. 1 seed in the National Invitational Tournament (NIT).
Earlier this month, following back-to-back close losses to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, the Orange appeared destined for the NIT once again. At the time, the Orange sat at 8-7 overall and had lost three of their first four in-conference matchups.
And then they began consistently hitting free throws.
In a scrappy road victory over then 18th seeded Virginia, the Orange made 11 of their 15 free throws (73%) while the Cavaliers made just 6 of 11 (54%).
Four nights later, the Orange routed Boston College at home 76-50. One of the differences in that victory was the Orange’s perfect 12-for-12 shooting from the free-throw line. The Eagles shot just four-of-eight from the charity stripe.
The Orange then battled Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. The win was the product of the Orange once again winning the free-throw battle, making 7-of-10, and seeing just four-of-eight of the Hokies’ tries fall.
On Wednesday night, the narrative continued at Notre Dame. The Orange escaped Indiana with an 84-82 victory and yet another decisive victory at the line. The Orange made 14-of-17 free throw attempts while the Irish made 7-of-10. Syracuse shot seven more free throws than Notre Dame, made seven more free throws, and now sits at 5-3 in conference play.
Heading into a crucial home matchup against Pittsburgh on Saturday, the Orange are a perfect 6-0 when 78% or more of their free throws fall, and below .500 (6-7) when they fail to hover around 80% from the line in a game.
Elijah Hughes (79.3% FT) and Buddy Boeheim (77.3% FT) have done their part from the line to keep Syracuse in games.
However, the emergence of Joe Girard, his now mainstay role as the lead point guard of this Syracuse team, and his nation-best 96.2% from the free-throw line are what has elevated the Orange back into NCAA Tournament contention.
Girard has made 50-of-52 free throws this season, an unprecedented feat by one of the best mid-season breakout stories in the ACC this season.
On the other hand, Bourama Sidibe (66% FG), Marek Dolezaj (53% FG) and Quincy Guerrier (47% FG) are hitting a high percentage of their field goals, yet are struggling to capitalize at the line this season.
Sidibe has attempted 23 free throws this season and has made just 11 of them (47.8%). Dolezaj has attempted 92 shots from the line and has made just 61 (66.3% FT). Guerrier has attempted 52 and has hit just 32 (61.5%) even after a promising 3-for-3 showing from the line on Wednesday night.
Moral of the story: The Orange’s dexterity from the free-throw line is what determines their wins and losses.
Continued dominance from the stripe from Girard, consistent free-throw shooting from Boeheim and Hughes, and casual improvements from Sidibe, Dolezaj, and Guerrier will equate to more victories than losses.
If the Orange manage to consistently win the free-throw battle, they’ll garner a promising shot at basketball during March.
If they make it to the big dance, they’ll have opportunities to win basketball games they were never supposed to be part of, one of Jim Boeheim’s most celebrated pastimes.