Calculating Syracuse football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

Preseason prognostications from pundits ahead of the 2024 campaign seem to indicate that Syracuse football, under first-year head coach Fran Brown, is likely to earn a third-straight bowl bid in the upcoming term.

Beyond that, can the Orange can compete for an Atlantic Coast Conference championship and a potential berth in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff ("CFP")?

That remains to be seen. Experts say that, on paper, the 'Cuse 2024 schedule is relatively manageable - quite favorable, perhaps. This leads me to believe that Syracuse football should capture at least eight or nine regular-season victories in 2024.

At the same time, the Orange in the upcoming season does have a first-year, and a first-time, head coach, a relatively new assistant-coaching staff, and a significantly overhauled roster.

ACC and national observers have put forth a mixed bag of preseason projections for the 'Cuse, ranging from being a "Cinderella" CFP contender to residing toward the second tier of the league standings. On July 1, by the way, California, Stanford and SMU officially joined the ACC, giving it 17 schools in football.

Speaking of the CFP, an expert noted this week that the Orange likely needs to attain 11 regular-season wins to be in the conversation for an at-large bid to the expanded playoffs.

Where will the 11 regular-season triumphs for Syracuse football come from in 2024?

In a post earlier week from the X account Kelley Ford of kfordratings.com, based on schedule difficulty, there was a graphic published that discusses projected regular-season victories needed by college squads to get into the convo for a CFP at-large berth.

In this social media post, it was revealed that the 'Cuse falls into a tier where 11 regular-season successes are needed to be in the conversation for the CFP. That would mean the Orange would have to go 11-1, which naturally is a tall task.

Could Syracuse football get there? Perhaps. Is it likely? I don't think so, but let's see how Brown and his roster actually fare in games come later this summer. The 'Cuse 2024 season kicks off in late August when the team will host Ohio in a non-conference encounter.

In late January, I did a super early forecast where I projected the Orange to finish 9-3 overall in the 2024 regular season. Some experts think that the floor for Syracuse football is six wins and attaining bowl eligibility, while the 'Cuse has a ceiling of perhaps nine or 10 victories.

First and foremost, personally, I think that if the 'Cuse went, say, 10-2, it could be in the conversation for the CFP. Secondly, going 11-1 leaves a razor-thin margin for error, even with a favorable 2024 docket.

Let's look at the schedule and project how Syracuse football could get to 11 regular-season triumphs.

Saturday, Aug. 31: Ohio at home
Conference affiliation: Mid-American Conference
Record in 2023 season: 10-3
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Sept. 7: Georgia Tech at home
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 7-6
Predicted result: Win

Friday, Sept. 20: Stanford at home
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 3-9
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Sept. 28: Holy Cross at home
Conference affiliation: Patriot League
Record in 2023 season: 7-4
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Oct. 5: at UNLV
Conference affiliation: Mountain West Conference
Record in 2023 season: 9-5
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Oct. 12: at N.C. State
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 9-4
Predicted result: Loss

Thursday, Oct. 24: at Pittsburgh
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 3-9
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Nov. 2: Virginia Tech at home
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 7-6
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Nov. 9: at Boston College
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 7-6
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Nov. 16: at California
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 6-7
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Nov. 23: UConn at home
Conference affiliation: Independent
Record in 2023 season: 3-9
Predicted result: Win

Saturday, Nov. 30: Miami at home
Conference affiliation: ACC
Record in 2023 season: 7-6
Predicted result: Win

Again, just my opinion here, but I think the Orange's two "toughest" 2024 games are at N.C. State and against Miami at the JMA Wireless Dome. If the 'Cuse could prevail in one of those two contests, and sweep the rest of its 2024 schedule (I know, that's a big "if"), that could get Syracuse football to 11-1 in the regular season.

So many hypotheticals here, I readily acknowledge. But still, it's a fun debate.