Fans bemoan Syracuse basketball not having any 2026 commits; but here's the reality

On Friday, Feb. 13, per reports, 2026 five-star shooting guard Jordan Smith Jr. from the DMV will make his commitment announcement. He won't be picking Syracuse basketball, and Arkansas has heavy analyst buzz in the 6-foot-3 Smith's recruitment.

The Orange staff offered Smith a scholarship in early May of 2023 and has recruited the nation's No. 2 senior hard ever since. It's a bummer that the 'Cuse won't prevail for Smith, as this will be the latest example of Syracuse basketball coaches missing out on a 2026 target.

As I've written about Smith and other Orange recruits in recent months (and even further back than that), some Syracuse basketball fans have bemoaned and lamented the fact that the 'Cuse still doesn't have a commitment from a high school senior.

Technically, that's not true, as Syracuse football freshman wide receiver Calvin Russell III, a 2026 five-star prospect, is currently playing for Syracuse basketball, although that's a bit of semantics. Among basketball-only prospects, the Orange doesn't have any 2026 pledges.

It's quite clear why Syracuse basketball hasn't landed a 2026 commit.

Over the last few years, Syracuse basketball coaches have offered scholarships to more than 20 players in the 2026 cycle. Of course, the Orange didn't heavily pursue all these guys, and some 2026 prospects who held 'Cuse offers didn't have sizable interest in SU. That's recruiting for you.

The 'Cuse staff, however, did hone in on several key recruits in this class, including Smith and five-star point guard Deron Rippey Jr., who is headed to Duke, among others. The Orange has also evaluated some 2027 targets as potential re-class candidates to 2026, including four-star wing/small forward Clyde Walters, as I first reported.

Here's the deal. For one, Syracuse basketball's 2026 class at the high school level was always likely to be small. Of the Orange's 13 main scholarship players in the 2025-26 season, nine or 10 could possibly return in 2026-27.

So that could have been factoring into the decision-making of SU coaches when pursuing (or not pursuing) high school seniors, and that also may have impacted whether some 2026 targets dropped Syracuse basketball from contention.

The biggest issue is this. Head coach Adrian Autry and his staff, as they prepare to host California on Wednesday night, are having a rough 2025-26 term. It's likely that Autry will be let go after this season is over, and there could be an overhaul of the assistant coaching staff, too.

Such a large decision over the future of Syracuse men's basketball comes as a new chancellor and a new athletics director will arrive at SU in the months ahead. With the uncertainty over the current coaching staff, including Autry, no high school senior is going to pledge to the Orange. It wouldn't make any sense.

So when I see fellow fans making comments about the 'Cuse lacking 2026 high school commits, this is why the program is lacking said commits. Plus, if there's a new staff at Syracuse basketball following the conclusion of the 2025-26 campaign, a roster can be constructed quickly.

A new head coach and new assistants could bring in players from their prior programs. The same can be said for any high school pledges that these coaches may have received. The transfer portal will be open for 15 days beginning the day after the 2026 NCAA Tournament title game.

College transfers don't have to commit to a new team during that 15-day window; they just have to enter the portal. My point here is that a new staff wouldn't have an issue constructing a roster, assuming that most - if not all - of the Orange's 2025-26 players bolt for other college programs.

Given the transfer portal's explosion, and college coaches being more focused on adding veterans to their rosters as opposed to prep recruits, it's not a big deal that Syracuse basketball doesn't have a 2026 high school commit. The optics are worse than the reality, and a potentially lame-duck coaching staff is why high school seniors haven't pledged to the 'Cuse.