Today at 2 pm marks the final regular season game for Syracuse basketball as they take on the Florida State Seminoles on the road.
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As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, this is an incredibly important game for both teams. There’s a lot left on the table and a win could go a long way to getting each team one step closer to the NCAA tournament. A loss, while not a final nail in the coffin for Syracuse basketball, could be the final straw for FSU as they would have lost five of their last six games.
Before getting into predictions, I just wanted to reiterate how much of a rollercoaster this season has been. After some brilliant play in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, Syracuse basketball looked prime to be a title contender. They made it all the way up to #14 in the polls before disappearing for the rest of the season after back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Georgetown. Those next ten games were ugly. With Boeheim gone, things looked dire.
But upon his return, the team was revitalized and jumped out to eight wins in nine games, including impressive victories over Duke, Notre Dame, and FSU. Then came another lull after SU’s back-to-back fiascoes against Louisville and Pittsburgh. A win against NC State and a loss at UNC puts us to where we are now, 19-11. The team still has the same question marks it’s had all season. Can they rebound? Can they play interior defense? Can they make their shots? Can they make their free throws?
We’ve got just one game left to shine some light on those questions, so let’s get down to it. Here are the predictions from each of the four writers at ITLH:
Chuck Jackson
This should be an easy pick, and for the most part it is. You have to go with Syracuse basketball, as the cumulative difference in their team statistics this late in the season is better than FSU, almost universally.
Syracuse bests FSU in average scoring margin by .8 points per game, they have a better overall win percentage by .047, and even won their first meeting 85-72. Syracuse even has a better win percentage in close games (.600 to .500). There is one number that gives me worry though. FSU actually averages about seven points more of scoring per contest. Clearly Syracuse basketball does it with defense, but if the last meeting is any indicator, they will need more offense than their average to win.
The number that worries me the most is Syracuse’s away record of 3-7. They are 16-4 at home or at a neutral location. On the road though, they struggle. I think the struggle is limited though in a close game and SU is able to edge out a tough FSU squad.
Prediction: Syracuse 78-75
Jeff Kelly
It all comes down to this for the Orange. Now, today’s game likely won’t be make or break for Syracuse basketball, particularly with the ACC Tournament coming up next week, but it always looks better to the selection committee to have 20 regular season wins than even just 19. And with a meeting against Florida State, the Orange have a strong opportunity to hit that 20 victory plateau.
Turnovers were a significant problem for Syracuse when they took on FSU earlier this season, as the Orange gave it away 20 times yet still managed to come away with the win. That was no doubt softened a bit by playing in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome. On the road, the Orange can’t be quite so charitable toward the Seminoles.
If Syracuse can limit turnovers and if Tyler Roberson can pound the boards the way he recently did against UNC, the Orange should be able to close the regular season with a victory.
Prediction: Syracuse 72-65
Ethan Kimmel
Syracuse basketball will beat Florida State because they are simply a better basketball team. To add onto that, it is also a crucial game for the Orange, as their tournament hopes rely on this game. It would also be a huge bonus to go into the ACC tournament with some momentum.
Obviously, it all starts with Michael Gbinije, he will need to continue to run the offense like he has been and continue to make big shots. Like I said earlier this week, don’t expect Trevor Cooney to make an impact, as his cold streak will continue on Saturday.
The wild card will be Tyler Roberson, as he is coming off of his best game in weeks. Will he be able to continue what he started against UNC and dominate on the offensive boards? The Orange don’t need Roberson to score, but rather rebound and play defense. Especially with a smaller team like Florida State, Roberson should be able to take advantage.
I am confident that Syracuse will win on the road and knock off Florida State.
Prediction: Syracuse 80-74
David Stone
To complement what my colleagues Jeff and Ethan said, I feel like Tyler Roberson is the x-factor in this game. He finally showed signs of life against UNC by grabbing six offensive rebounds. Roberson currently sits in 10th place nationally in offensive rebounds per game at 3.97 per contest. If he can grab another four this game, that will be a big boost.
Aside from Roberson, as I mentioned in yesterday’s article, we need at least three players to score 10 points. We can pretty much assume Gbinije will get there, so realistically we need two other guys. My bet is on Malachi Richardson and Trevor Cooney. I see both guys finally coming out of their mini-slumps and getting on track against a very porous FSU defense. Tyler Lydon could get in on the action as well, as other than Gbinije he has been playing the best basketball on the team lately.
I think Florida State will put up a heck of a fight in this one, and I certainly don’t see a lopsided victory. At the end though, Syracuse basketball just has more weapons than FSU and will put out a close game down the stretch.
Prediction: Syracuse 77-73
Next: SU vs FSU: 4 Keys to the Game
Check back after the game for a full recap and detailed analysis. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter as we will be live tweeting the game.