Syracuse Basketball: Bubble Watch Update

Syracuse basketball sits squarely on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament with a current record of 19-11 and an ACC conference record of 9-8.

After a rollercoaster of a season, just one regular season game remains for Syracuse basketball to increase their odds of a postseason birth. I feel like a broken record here, but Saturday’s game against Florida State is basically a must-win at this point. 19-12 and 9-9 in conference play just doesn’t get it done in my opinion.

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Before we go into breaking down that game, let’s take a look at where Syracuse basketball currently stands in the bubble watch and some other teams that are also likely on the bubble.

This years fringe teams are plentiful, and there are a myriad of those deserving one of the few remaining at-large spots. Based on RPI alone, there are nine “bubble teams” in better position than the Orange currently. Those teams include: Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Tulsa, VCU, St. Mary’s, Florida, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, and Temple.

Of those teams, I think a few are pretty much a given.

VCU in the Atlantic 10 is 21-8 and 13-3 in conference and 9-6 against the top 150 RPI teams. They look like a solid at-large pick to me.

St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference sits at 25-4 and 13-3 in conference. They are 6-4 against the top 150 and have two quality wins over Gonzaga. If they don’t win their conference tourney, I still think they are dancing.

Cincinnati and Temple, both in the American Conference, are 21-8 and and 18-10 respectively. Cincy is 11-5 in conference while Temple is 12-4. I think these two slug it out for one spot and right now I give the edge to Temple with a better conference record and a 2-0 split against the Bearcats.

St. Bonaventure actually has a real shot as well. They’re only 17-10 overall and 8-8 in conference, but they sit with an RPI of 32 and have played a whopping 21 games against the top 150, going 11-10. Keep in mind, Syracuse basketball beat St. Bonaventure (barely) back in November.

Vanderbilt could get in, and I know a lot of pundits are pretty big on them for their tough schedule, but I’m not sure I see it happening. In an incredibly weak SEC conference this year they went 11-6 and they are only 19-11 overall. They do have a pair of signature wins against Texas A&M and Kentucky however, so it’s certainly possible they make it if they can win a couple games in the SEC tournament.

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So where does that leave Syracuse basketball? Currently, they are in a very questionable position. They are a meager 11-10 against the top 150, though they have played one of the tougher schedules in the country with an

SOS of 39th nationally

. They are 41st in the

Pomeroy Power Rankings

, sitting just one spot behind Pittsburgh, who have pretty much secured an NCAA birth at this point in the season.

A win over Florida State, currently 46th in kenpom and 72nd in RPI, would definitely help them. A loss would be pretty devastating. That’s why I say at this point, it’s pretty much a must-win game unless they plan on winning the ACC tournament.

Even with a win, it’s not impossible that Syracuse basketball gets snubbed, especially if they have an early exit from the ACC tournament. The bottom line is, I think SU needs to win against Florida State, win a game in the ACC tourney, and at least play a close game in their second contest. Do that, and there’s a good chance we make the tournament. Fail to do that, and I’d say it’s hello NIT.

These past two seasons have been very tough as a Syracuse basketball fan. With the postseason ban last year and the mediocre-at-best team, I had big hopes that this team would turn it around. At times they’ve looked great this year, but at other times they’ve just shown no hustle and been incredibly inconsistent. When this team is hot they can beat anyone in the country. When they are not, they can lose to teams like St. John’s and Georgetown. That’s not what you want to see in a basketball team.

Next: Diagnosing SU's Loss to UNC

One last thing that I’ll leave you all with is this: the Jim Boeheim effect. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee have already said they will be taking into consideration the fact that Jim Boeheim missed nine games. SU went 4-5 in those nine games. With Boeheim, they have gone 15-7 with wins over Duke, Notre Dame, UConn, FSU, and Texas A&M. So hopefully that is what sways the committee on these Orange. It would truly be heartbreaking for Cooney and Gbinije to miss the dance two years in a row.

At this point, just win. That’s it. Keep winning and make it so that the committee doesn’t have a choice but to include the Orange. There’s really nothing more to it than that. Simple right?