Syracuse Football: Why the Orange don't belong in the top 25 polls - just yet

Fran Brown's first year as the head coach of Syracuse football has been very successful. The Orange are 5-1 and have two wins over top-25 teams (Georgia Tech, UNLV).

Following Syracuse's road win over NC State on October 12, many in the Cuse fanbase advocated for the team's inclusion in the AP top 25. That did not happen, and the Orange still did not get ranked after a second bye week, although Syracuse received votes for the third week in a row.

First, let me start by saying I'd love to see Syracuse in the top 25. I have no intentions of being a "hater" - I'm just calling it as I see it. Reaching the top 25 would only give Syracuse football more of a national spotlight, possibly for postseason awards and just improving the perception of the program.

Additionally, it would help recruiting as it gives proof that Fran Brown's vision for the program is working.

Syracuse football shouldn't be in the top 25 for the time being.

The biggest reason why Syracuse shouldn't be ranked, to me, is I've seen a team that has yet to play a perfect game and Syracuse hasn't been nearly as dominant as needed to be. With the exception of the Ohio (38-22) and Holy Cross (42-14) games, Syracuse doesn't have a win by more than a touchdown.

Even in the most recent wins over UNLV and NC State, postgame win probability from ESPN's Bill Connelly suggests Syracuse should have lost (although Connelly's model believes Syracuse should have beaten Stanford). A team that should be 4-2 has no business being in the top 25 as of right now.

Other advanced metrics, such as opponent-adjusted EPA/play from Bud Davis suggest Syracuse football is a comparable team to Oklahoma State, North Carolina, and Mississippi State. All three of those teams have a losing record and Mississippi State is 1-5 with a 24-point loss to Toledo.

Davis' graphs suggest Syracuse has a moderately above-average offense, with a defense near the bottom. Going further, Syracuse has a very good passing offense with a poor rush attack. On defense, the Orange are below average in both rushing and passing defense, with the passing defense being the fifth-worse in the Power Four.

An equally big problem is just how bad that Stanford loss looks. The Cardinal, although admittedly having played a very difficult schedule, are 2-5 with their only other win coming against FCS Cal Poly. Stanford is coming off a blowout 40-10 loss to SMU, another one-loss team that's ranked 22nd in the AP poll. You just can't lose to a team like Stanford, at home, and expect to be ranked.

With that, I don't think there's a particular team Syracuse should rank above. Twenty-two of the top 25 teams are either undefeated or have one loss. Of the three teams with two losses, Alabama has a win over No. 2 Georgia, Vanderbilt (although being in the same ballpark as Syracuse on EPA) beat then No.1 Alabama, and Ole Miss has looked dominant in all five wins.

This includes a 34-point win over Wake Forest, and while the Demon Deacons are towards the bottom of the ACC, Wake Forest is 3-4 and still beat NC State by a similar margin as the Orange did.

The good thing for Syracuse is rankings don't matter right now. Syracuse is firmly in the ACC Championship race and has five more conference games to play. If you win the ACC, you're in the playoffs. Simple as that.

On Thursday, the Orange will travel to Acrisure Stadium to play Pitt, a team that is 6-0 and ranked No. 19. Syracuse, if it beats the Panthers, would then be 6-1 with three wins over top-25 teams, and I find it very hard for AP voters to overlook the Orange then.

Winning cures all problems. The ranking problem is no different. Take care of business, and you'll soon get a number next to your name. If anything, not being ranked gives Fran Brown more motivation for his team, and I'm sure he's using it to get his team ready for Pitt.