It's now inevitable that Syracuse basketball will have to start from scratch

With 12 games left in the regular season, it's too soon to close the curtain on the Syracuse Orange's basketball season. However, we can all see where things are going. The season will end with Syracuse nowhere close to the NCAA Tournament and with Adrian Autry getting fired.

After back-to-back losses to Boston College and Virginia Tech, Syracuse's tournament hopes are all but over. While the Orange has plenty of opportunities to score resume-building wins and overcome a few resume-killing losses, that's not going to happen. The team that went just 3-3 during the most manageable part of the ACC schedule isn't suddenly going to start knocking off top-25 teams left and right.

When another frustrating and mediocre season is over, athletic director John Wildhack will have no choice but to part ways with Autry. It will be the right move, but it will also trigger an exodus that will essentially force Syracuse basketball to start the program from scratch with a new coach and a new roster, despite currently having one of the most talented and exciting rosters in years.

Adrian Autry's blown opportunity

The Syracuse basketball season never should have come to this. In Donnie Freeman, the Orange has a bona fide star who will likely be a first-round NBA Draft pick, if not a lottery pick, later this year. In J.J. Starling, Syracuse has a player who entered the season with 13 games against ACC opponents with 20 or more points. In Naithan George, the Orange has one of the ACC's top point guards from last season.

Beyond that trio, William Kyle and Tyler Betsey have been diamonds in the rough that Autry plucked out of the transfer portal. Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony highlighted the best recruiting class in several years. Nate Kingz has been a versatile role player who seems to be getting better with every passing game.

At the moment, Syracuse has seven players averaging at least eight points per game, including a point guard dishing out 5.5 assists per game. All of the ingredients needed to make the NCAA Tournament are there. But Autry has turned those high-level ingredients into a team that can barely put away some of the ACC's worst teams, while losing its past two ACC games.

Enough is enough

After Autry went 34-31 over his first two seasons as head coach, much of the fan base had seen enough. Ultimately, he was given the chance to come back for a third season, which was the right call. Autry was in the unfortunate position of learning to be a head coach for the first time at the same time he had to navigate a new era of college basketball in which NIL and the transfer portal dictate everything.

However, the failures of Autry's third season can't be forgiven or overlooked. He has the talent to have a better-than-average ACC team that should at least be on the bubble. But with losses to Hofstra and Boston College on the Orange's resume, and no marquee wins other than a home victory over a Tennessee team that's faded into the middle of the back in the SEC, a small miracle will be needed to get Syracuse to the Big Dance. Barring a miracle, Autry will surely be out of a job, as he should be.

What comes next?

While hiring Autry's replacement will be a way to breathe new life into the program, it will be so much more than that. The Orange will more or less be starting from scratch. Starling, Kyle and (potentially) Kingz will exhaust their eligibility at the end of the season. Freeman will surely leave for the NBA at season's end. Given the convenience of the transfer portal, a new coaching staff would mean that George, Betsey, White and Anthony could all leave as well. In fact, one might say it's likely that all four would go elsewhere if Autry is fired.

If all four leave, Syracuse would be left with virtually no players who have meaningful playing experience. Such a scenario would surpass the significant turnover seen in each of the last two offseasons. It would be akin to starting the program from scratch, as if Syracuse had incurred some death-penalty punishment. Fans could potentially be left to support a program without a recognizable coach and with no familiar players on the roster.

This doesn't mean Autry should get a fourth year. Even if a core of George, Betsey, White and Anthony would offer some promise for next season, it's not enough to avoid the inevitable coaching change. While some fans may view that as a positive, a chance for a new coach to get a fresh slate, the coaching change that's coming this offseason means that Syracuse will be starting from zero, with a long road to get back to the level it wants to be.