ACC Football November 1 Power Rankings: Team records are misleading

November has officially arrived, which means we’ve made it to the stretch run of the college football season. As usual, it’s been a wild and largely unpredictable ride. Since we did our October power rankings, much has changed. However, perhaps we finally have some idea of how things look in this enigma of a conference. With four weeks left, here is how things stand in the ACC.

1. Miami

The only thing for certain in the ACC is that Miami is the best team. The Hurricanes are 8-0 and currently No. 1 in the country. There have been a couple of close calls in recent weeks, but Miami has survived, putting the Canes on track for a return to the College Football Playoff. The rest of the ACC schedule should be manageable, but the Hurricanes have a big game at Notre Dame next week.

2. Wake Forest

At the start of the season, nobody would have believed this, but Wake Forest is undoubtedly the second-best team in the ACC. The Demon Deacons have won five in a row since losing to Miami, with several of those wins coming in blowout fashion. Right now, they have the inside track on getting a rematch with Miami in the ACC Championship Game, although a couple of tricky games in November await.

3. Louisville

After Miami and Wake Forest, there is a whole lot of uncertainty, but the Cardinals are probably the safest choice. A road loss to NC State doesn’t sit well, but the Cards have won three in a row since then. The problem is they have a head-to-head loss to Wake Forest, so they’ll need the Demon Deacons to lose twice to have any chance of getting to the conference title game.

4. Duke

If it were possible, we’d put a blank space at No. 4 to showcase just how big the drop-off is at this point in the power rankings. But after the Blue Devils were a blocked PAT returned away from a shutout win over Boston College, we begrudgingly give this spot to the Blue Devils. Duke’s only two ACC losses have come in close games, and they have impressive non-conference wins. But Manny Diaz and company will likely be kicking themselves at the end of the season for letting that Georgia Tech game get away from them.

5. SMU

It’s hard to figure out SMU. The Mustangs are so talented, but they’ve rarely lived up to their potential in a series of close wins. Letting a fourth-quarter lead get away from them at Syracuse certainly didn’t help their cause. SMU’s November schedule is also among the toughest in the ACC, making us bullish on putting the Mustangs too high.

6. Clemson

Dabo Swinney is struggling to find what once made Clemson one of the elite programs in the country. The Tigers don’t look like an ACC contender, although if not for a home loss to Virginia Tech, they would very much be in the mix for the conference title game. Clemson hasn’t been as bad as you might think, even if the Tigers continue to fall well short of internal expectations.

7. North Carolina

The Tar Heels are probably a little better than their 2-3 conference record indicates. They’ve had to endure gut-wrenching losses to Syracuse and Miami in consecutive weeks. Right now, North Carolina’s only conference wins have come against Pitt (without its starting quarterback) and Duke. But Bill Belichick’s team has played competitive games with both Notre Dame and Miami despite being rather limited offensively. The Tar Heels still have a good chance to get to a bowl game, as they are one of several ACC teams that are better than their record might indicate.

8. Virginia Tech

James Franklin gets some credit for the job he’s done in Blacksburg this year. However, even with a road win over Clemson, Virginia Tech’s other wins have come against Boston College and Georgia Tech, with losses to Pitt and Cal. They haven’t exactly played a tough schedule, which will change in November. For the time being, we can’t put them too high.

9. Syracuse

With back-to-back wins over North Carolina and SMU, Fran Brown’s team has officially moved to the middle of the pack. A 2-4 ACC record looks bad, but two of those losses came by just three points. If not for Syracuse’s kicking woes or a string of quarterback injuries, this season could look a lot different, which is why the Orange warrants a spot much higher than a 2-4 conference record would indicate.

10. Florida State

If you only look at Florida State’s 3-5 record, including 1-4 in conference play, it looks bad for Mike Norvell. But the Seminoles have played a ridiculously tough schedule, facing SMU, Alabama, Louisville, Miami and Clemson. Being reasonably competitive in many of those games is enough to keep them out of the ACC basement, even if it’ll take a miracle for Norvell to keep his job.

11. Boston College

Two conference wins this season are more than many expected from Boston College this season. The Eagles have also been competitive in losses to Virginia Tech and SMU. But beating a 2-6 Rutgers team, Pitt without its starting quarterback and Georgia Tech can only take the Eagles so far. Assuming they don’t upset Notre Dame or Miami, BC needs to beat both Florida State and Syracuse to reach a bowl game, which is a tall task.

12. Pittsburgh

This is definitely a season of “what if” for Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers were 5-0 with Mason Heintschel, but are 1-3 without him. Blowing out Georgia Tech this past week will at least ensure a bowl game for Pitt. But in their current state, the Panthers are closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top, which is what happens to most teams that lose their starting quarterback.

13. Stanford

With wins over Georgia Tech and NC State, there’s no way the Cardinal belongs in the basement. The problem is that losses to Miami, Duke, Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Louisville mean Stanford will have to win two of its final three games to get to a bowl game. But that’s not the most realistic outcome at this point.

14. NC State

Can anyone figure out NC State? Things are so bad that they had to fire their coach after losing to Stanford, but the Wolfpack responded with an emphatic win over Cal. They also beat Louisville early in the season but got pummeled by Virginia in the season opener. They are the embodiment of why ACC power rankings are so difficult.

15. Virginia

Early in the season, Virginia looked like a contender, but things have fallen off the rails. If not for a comeback win against a Syracuse team that finished the game with its fourth-string quarterback, the Cavs would have lost five in a row. They’ve been blown out by Florida State and Wake Forest during that stretch, which is why they rank so low heading into November, needing two wins in three games to reach a bowl.

16. California

The Bears have now lost three in a row and need to win all three of their November games to reach a bowl game. Somehow, they have wins over Syracuse and Virginia Tech, which could count for something. But that doesn’t mean much after getting outscored 131-37 over their last three games.

17. Georgia Tech

It’s becoming a safe assumption that the Yellow Jackets are the worst team in the ACC. How they beat Duke remains a mystery because Georgia Tech has been otherwise hapless this season. They’ve lost lopsided games to Boston College and Pitt in recent weeks, and it’s likely to get worse in November, with the Yellow Jackets on pace to go 2-10.

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