Syracuse basketball fans, don’t raise the alarm on this season just yet

Listen, we’re Syracuse basketball fans. We’re constantly guilty of overreacting when the Orange lose and under-reacting when they win. We love to see the guys succeed, but sometimes, we can’t tolerate the process of getting there.

Trust me, I’m the worst when it comes to this. But please, don’t throw in the towel on this season just yet, I guarantee this year’s squad still has some surprises left.

A 5-3 record is not perfect. Getting blown out by Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Virginia makes that 5-3 hurt even worse. Ego deflators.

That’s not to say this season is over for Syracuse basketball, far from it. Let’s take a look at why.

KenPom

For those of you who don’t know what KenPom is, it’s an advanced analytic system put together by a guy named Ken Pomeroy. KenPom pretty much analyzes college basketball teams and ranks them based on advanced analytics such as the strength of schedule, efficiency (on both offense and defense), and the quality of opponents. In simpler terms, it looks at a team’s record and takes a deep dive beyond just wins and losses.

If you want to take a look at KenPom, check it out here.

Okay, so you are probably wondering, what does KenPom have to do with giving up on ‘Cuse’s season? Truthfully, a lot.

As of Dec. 5, 2023, KenPom ranks Syracuse as the number 106 team in the country out of 362. Not especially positive, considering Stephen F. Austin and Loyola Chicago are the 105 and 107 teams in the ranking.

Ignoring that for a second, let’s take a look at Syracuse’s strength of schedule. To this point, ‘Cuse’s schedule ranks as the 29th most difficult. Considering Syracuse’s youth and new head coach, it comes as no major surprise they have struggled with such an immensely difficult schedule.

On top of this, Syracuse has faced off against some defensive juggernauts. Opponents’ defenses rank 18th in the country, essentially meaning Syracuse’s offense has had their work cut out for them. Keep in mind this ranking also accounts for some of the weaker teams Syracuse has played. Tennessee’s defense ranks 2nd in the country, Virginia’s number 6, and Gonzaga’s 18th.

Sure, ‘Cuse’s offense has looked lost on occasion, especially against tougher opponents and without Judah Mintz on the floor but give them a break. For a young team trying desperately to find its identity on the offensive end, the 3-headed monster of ‘Zaga, Tennessee, and Virginia posed quite the threat.

Give them some time to work out the quirks on the offensive end against weaker opponents. With a backcourt of Judah Mintz and J.J. Starling, this team won’t stay down offensively for long.

If in a few weeks, this Syracuse basketball team still looks lost on offense, maybe then it will be time to at least consider hitting the panic button. For now, though, this young offense needs time.

Experience

This team is young and lacks any sort of significant experience. The oldest scholarship players are juniors, Benny Williams and Naheem McLeod.

Leadership has seemingly fallen to sophomores Mintz and Starling. They have played very well thus far, but they still need time to develop and learn to run the offense.

Keep in mind, that they also have a new coach and are running a completely new defense. With that kind of youth, inexperience, and major changes, there will be and have been growing pains.

The Orange are learning their roles and where they fit on the roster. Mintz is learning to run an offense as the focal point without Joe Girard and Jesse Edwards. Starling is adjusting to transferring and learning to play without veteran guard leadership surrounding him. Forwards Justin Taylor and Chris Bell are actively working at taking on larger roles on the offensive end. The center position has been up for grabs all year.

This process is going to take time, and we have seen the variance in results. The Orange ran LSU off the floor, then proceeded to fall flat on their face against the Virginia Cavaliers. They are young, let them work through their issues.

On a side note, the teams that have beaten them by a lot are led by significantly older players. Gonzaga’s five leading scorers are a graduate student, a redshirt junior, two regular juniors, and a redshirt freshman. Tennessee starts three, 5th-year players, including player-of-the-year candidate Dalton Knecht. Virginia relied heavily on their leading scorer, senior Reece Beekman.

Age and experience lead to success in the current state of college basketball. This is not to say this young ‘Cuse team cannot succeed, rather they will need time to reach comparable levels of their older opponents.

Talent

This team is talented, there is no denying that. They are led by Judah Mintz, a potential NBA draft pick and candidate for the Naismith Player of the Year award. His ability to take it to the rim, handle the ball, and draw fouls is some of the best in the ACC if not the entire NCAA.

Starling is a steady, consistent guard with a knack for scoring in the paint. Bell can shoot the lights out and was a top-100 recruit. Taylor also has a knack for scoring, especially from 3-point range, though he struggles with consistency. Quadir Copeland looks like a magician on some possessions and a turnover machine on others.

If this team can put it all together, they can really push for a top 5 bid in the ACC and a real shot at the top 25 in the country. The real question is, is if they can reach this point this season. Assuredly, Syracuse basketball is on the right track from a talent standpoint, both on the current roster and in the future with incoming four-star recruits Elijah Moore and Donnie Freeman. At this point, however, we will just have to wait and see how that translates to this season.

Outlook

I may be an optimist, but the outlook looks bright. Syracuse basketball has talent in abundance, especially compared to past seasons. As fans, we have to patient considering their youth, new head coach, and new system. It may be frustrating from time to time, but this team will adjust, though the real question is when that adjustment will take place.