Syracuse Football: Westward Ho! The future of the ACC.

With the recent announcement of the upcoming move of UCLA and USC to the Big Ten Conference, two things have become abundantly clear, and we’ll get to Syracuse football in a second.

First, it’s that regionality no longer matters when it comes to conference “affiliation”. And second, it has become similarly clear that the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the Big Ten are in the midst of a two-way arms race, and everyone else, including Syracuse football, runs the risk of being left out in the cold.

While some Orange fans still hang on to the pipe dream that the Big Ten may someday be calling on Syracuse football, that has got to be considered a long shot at this point. The Big Ten has made a habit of adding programs that deliver markets.

Despite marketing itself as “New York’s College Team” a decade ago (a questionable claim, but a marketing campaign worth trying I suppose), the football program’s lack of success has really counteracted any money spent marketing to NYC fans in my opinion. New York just isn’t a college football town, and if you can’t bring a winner to the table, you just aren’t moving the needle there.

A Vulnerable Spot for Syracuse football (and the ACC).

This leaves Syracuse University and, more broadly, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), in a very vulnerable spot. Of course, right now, it is in the best interests of Syracuse football narrowly, and Syracuse Orange sports broadly, for the ACC to not only survive, but also position itself as the de facto #3 football conference in America, one which is strong enough to hold its own long-term.

And despite the challenges that come with it, the fact that geographic proximity no longer appears to be much of a factor in conference-building does present what I believe to be one last viable opportunity for schools not in the SEC or Big Ten to maintain relevance, a pathway to major bowls, and a potential pathway to a national title. Indeed, at this moment in time, pro-activity is key, and the ACC and its leadership need to be aggressive.

So, while the SEC and Big Ten are going big, I think the ACC needs to think BIGGER: a twenty-one-team bi-coastal mega-conference that includes current ACC members plus select remaining core members of the now-wounded PAC-12 Conference: Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, and Cal.

The addition of markets such as Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, Phoenix, Denver, and Tucson to the conference as a whole would significantly increase the value of the ACC, and would, as a result, allow for a renegotiation of the current ESPN TV contract. The resulting deal would likely pay conference members significantly more than the current arrangement and getting that higher payout, and soon, is key to any hope that schools like Clemson and FSU, expected to be recruited by the Big Ten and SEC, will remain in the ACC.

The Path Forward?

Here’s one way that a 21-team Atlantic Pacific Conference could work.

Atlantic Division

• Syracuse
• Boston College
• Miami
• Duke
• Wake
• NC State
• UNC

Central Division

• Clemson
• Georgia Tech
• Virginia Tech
• Virginia
• Florida State
• Louisville
• Pitt

Pacific Division

• Oregon
• Washington
• Arizona
• Arizona State
• Stanford
• Colorado
• Cal

Each of these 21 teams would play their 6 divisional opponents once a year, then would face a rotation of 3 other schools from other divisions, and then would still have 3 non-conference game opportunities (although, in a conference this big, perhaps 4 cross-overs and 2 non-con dates makes more sense). Each of the 3 division winners plus the 2nd place team with the best record would then compete for the Conference title in a 4-team playoff.

This league would be massive in scale and feature a number of major markets from coast to coast (7 of the top 17 Nielsen-ranked markets would be represented, as would 10 of the top 25). And while, from a talent perspective alone, it would likely not be as top-heavy as the Big Ten or SEC, it would still feature a number of national championship-caliber teams such as Clemson and Oregon, along with a number of legacy powers such as Miami and Syracuse’s long-time “traditional rival” Florida State.

And the only way to even have a chance to keep programs like this from following the lead of Texas, USC, and UCLA is to find a way to make it financially worth their while to stay.

The Golden-Domed Elephant in the Room.

There is one elephant in the room I have not touched upon here, and that is Notre Dame. The reason? I don’t think Notre Dame will ever join the ACC for football. I believe that the ACC had one chance to exact leverage on Notre Dame in order to maybe, just maybe, nudge them in for football, and that was when the program desperately needed a home for its other sports. Rather than play hardball, the ACC allowed them full access on a wing and a prayer and with a loosely worded agreement that if Notre Dame ever joins a football conference it would be the ACC.

However – there is an escape clause in that agreement that, while costly for most teams, Notre Dame would likely simply shrug off and pay.

Now, of course, all scheduling and alignment discussions aside, if at some point Notre Dame wants in, you let them in. You go to 22 teams; you change up the divisions. Whatever it takes. But I don’t imagine they will. Notre Dame has, for its duration, been all about Notre Dame and no one or nothing else. And that’s why it’s critical that the ACC does everything in its power to build itself up without relying on that unlikely addition.

Is this bi-coastal arrangement a perfect scenario? No. It would not be ideal for Syracuse football to suddenly be facing a traditional rival like Pitt only once every 4 or 5 years. And maybe the scheduling or divisional structure could be adjusted somewhat.

But at present, given where the stars and planets currently are aligned, the best path forward is for the ACC, and in my opinion, the best hope for Syracuse football to maintain a seat at the table of high-level football relevance is to embrace the west and engage with the remaining PAC-12 programs in a manner far more concrete than a handshake “scheduling” alliance alone.