Syracuse basketball has the opportunity to all but clinch its spot in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday against the Virginia Cavaliers.
Syracuse basketball impressed in the 12 o’clock window on Wednesday in the ACC Tournament with an 89 to 68 win over North Carolina State. The win sets them up Virginia for another Noon matchup on Thursday. Given the Cavaliers are the one-seed in the ACC Tournament and the Orange are Joe Lunardi’s first team out, a win for Syracuse would most likely secure them a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 10, 2021
So now, Syracuse basketball has less than 24 hours to prepare for the biggest game of the season. Can the Orange get it done? Surely, they’re playing their best basketball of the season. But a lot has to go right to beat Virginia, which shows the magnitude of a win, but also how hard it is to actually get it done.
1. Closing out on Three-point Shooters
A lot went wrong for the Orange when it played Virginia on January 25. But perhaps the biggest reason for the Cavs’ 81 to 58 drubbing of the ‘Cuse was Virginia’s hot shooting from behind the arc.
Some of it was just one of those nights for Tony Bennett’s rare offensively talented Cavaliers team. But a lot was also Syracuse’s inability to successfully close out – resulting in 14-of-31 shooting from three for Virginia.
Syracuse has had a problem all season defending the three, but it seems as if they’ve found a way to stop it as of late. The Orange have stopped opponents to 21-of-67 from deep on their current three-game win streak. That’s remarkable given Virginia’s torching of the 2-3 zone in late January.
But a lot can change in a month and a half and it’ll have to for Syracuse to beat Virginia.
GOAL: 8 or fewer three-point field goals OR less than 30% from three for Virginia
2. Second Chance Points on Offense
If you didn’t know that Syracuse has ongoing struggles down low then you don’t like Syracuse basketball!
No seriously, it’s been about the easiest theme to follow this season, because let’s face it, Syracuse is playing without an actual center.
Marek Dolezaj and Quincy Guerrier have done as about as good of jobs as they could to try and redress the Syracuse woes inside. But that can be a challenge when game after game the Orange go in undersized in the part of the game where size matters.
Last time out against Virginia, Cuse actually kept the Cavaliers from getting too many second-chance opportunities. Virginia had just seven offensive rebounds to the Orange’s four. But Virginia completely outdueled the Orange on the defensive boards, resulting in one-and-dones practically every time down the court as Syracuse tried to keep pace with the Cavaliers’ threes.
SU outrebounded the Wolfpack, 33 to 31, and will need to do the same for a second straight day if they want to advance. It doesn’t mean the Orange have to wipe out the Cavs on the glass. But Syracuse needs to at least make a big effort for loose balls and get lucky a few times against mighty Jay Huff.
One key player could be Jesse Edwards. The sophomore didn’t play against UVA earlier this season but did play against NC State in the ACC Tournament and cleared a team-leading eight rebounds – FIVE of them on the offensive end. If Edwards plays and does so well against Virginia, it could give them a needed edge to try and compete again on the boards.
GOAL: 35+ rebounds for Syracuse OR no more than -3 in the rebounding margin
3. Ball Movement
Other than Buddy Boeheim’s 20-point outburst in the first half and 27 points overall to lead Syracuse past North Carolina State, it was the ball movement and passing that put Syracuse on top.
The Orange had 19 assists in total – four more than its season average of 15.1, which is actually top-75 in the NCAA anyways.
Going back to that game against Virginia (shudder), Syracuse dished out just 10 assists. That won’t cut it against a team that prides itself as a shutdown defense.
But the beauty of tournament basketball is how easy it can be for good things to carry over from game to game. And against NC State, there were a lot of good and very few bad. So if Syracuse can carry over some of that passing, cutting, and offensive movement for Thursday, it will boost the Orange’s chances of winning tenfold.
GOAL: 14 assists or more for Syracuse
Final Thoughts
This game against Virginia will create a lot of anxiety for Syracuse fans – win or lose – so be easy on your fellow Orange buds on Thursday.
But the way Syracuse basketball has been playing, they aren’t the typical eight seed in the ACC. Rather, they’re a hot team who catches Virginia at a time where they haven’t been playing their best basketball (the Cavs have won two straight, but before that lost three in a row).
Syracuse can certainly win against Virginia on Thursday and if it does, the Orange are 99% in the field of 68.