There a lot of variables that could weigh on Syracuse basketball should Dior Johnson come to the Hill a year earlier than expected.
Last week, when word broke that 2022 five-star point guard Dior Johnson is seriously considering a reclassification to the 2021 class, my initial reaction amounted to immense joy for Syracuse basketball.
Johnson, a rising junior at powerhouse prep school Oak Hill Academy in Mouth of Wilson, Va., is one of the top players in all of high-school basketball, regardless of class. He is also the highest-rated commit for the Orange since ‘Cuse legend Carmelo Anthony guided Syracuse to the program’s sole national title in 2003.
I first thought that if Johnson elected to join the 2021 class, it gives the ‘Cuse a much-better chance of him actually setting foot on campus, rather than going straight to the professional ranks. And that still holds true.
However, there are many other facets to this exciting, yet complicated, situation as it pertains to how Johnson’s possible reclassification could affect Syracuse basketball – positively, or negatively. Let’s examine some of the key issues surrounding his ultimate decision.
First and foremost, as I already noted, if Johnson becomes a member of the 2021 recruiting cycle, it’s extremely likely that he suits up for the Orange for at least one campaign, if not two. Of course, that would prove amazing, as he is an elite talent.
With a strong supporting cast, it’s not a super stretch to say that Johnson could play a key role in getting head coach Jim Boeheim a second NCAA championship, or perhaps at least a sixth trip to the Final Four. I so want JB to cut down the nets again, mainly because my hope is that then a lot of his critics would chill out.
But – on the flip side – should Johnson, universally deemed a top-15 player in the 2022 class, reclassify to 2021, that could significantly impact the current ‘Cuse roster.
How might Johnson’s availability in 2021-22 alter the playing time of present starting point guard Joe Girard III, a rising sophomore, or 2020 commit Kadary Richmond, a four-star combo guard? I can’t imagine Boeheim relegating Girard to the bench, assuming he performs well in the upcoming term.
To that end, does Johnson really want to make the move to the 2021 class, but then not start? I’d suggest that Syracuse could put Girard as a shooting guard, as he may excel off-ball, but what about the existing starter at that position, rising junior Buddy Boeheim?
There is also the recruiting component to all of this. Johnson, who pledged himself to the Orange back in February, has said that he plans to bring other stellar recruits with him to Central New York.
Dior Johnson, a five-star point guard, may reclassify to the 2021 class, which is an interesting position for Syracuse basketball.
As we’ve covered extensively of late, the ‘Cuse is eyeing about 10 prospects to potentially link up with Johnson in what could prove a historic 2022 cycle for Syracuse.
Johnson, for example, is competing for Oak Hill Academy alongside Zion Cruz, a five-star shooting guard and top-20 prospect in the 2022 class. Cruz is a high-priority target for the Orange.
Yet if Johnson reclassifies to 2021, does that make it more challenging for the ‘Cuse to also secure Cruz, or other guys with whom Johnson has connections to in 2022? Maybe, but also maybe not.
Conversely, if Johnson enters 2021, then Syracuse has the opportunity to formulate a ridiculously good class in that recruiting cycle.
The Orange has already received a commitment from 2021 four-star small forward Benny Williams, a top-50 prospect out of St. Andrew’s Episcopal School in Potomac, Md.
And the ‘Cuse, much like in 2022, is honing in on a handful of top-flight players in the 2021 class, including top-60 Micawber Etienne, a four-star center who is transferring from the Suffield Academy in Suffield, Conn., to the Brewster Academy in Wolfeboro, N.H., a squad that has provided multiple recruits to Syracuse in recent stanzas.
If the Orange could acquire Etienne to play with Johnson and Williams in the 2021 recruiting cycle, wow. Another consideration is just how many scholarships the ‘Cuse will have available in both the 2021 and 2022 classes.
Without knowing about roster movements that could transpire in the future, it seems at this juncture Syracuse will have two open slots in 2021 and 2022, after already factoring in Williams to 2021 and Johnson to 2022.
As far as Orange targets in 2021, the ‘Cuse doesn’t appear to have much of a focus on another point guard, so that doesn’t really affect Johnson.
For the 2022 recruiting cycle, if Johnson opts to reclassify, that could become appealing to a point guard in the 2022 class, such as Syracuse-area product J.J. Starling, a four-star, top-60 player.
There are tons of layers to get sorted out if Johnson reclassifies, and I believe that logical arguments can get made that it’s better for the Orange for him to stay in the 2022 class, as well as for him to trade up to the 2021 class.
Personally, I merely want to watch Johnson don a ‘Cuse uniform for one or two seasons. These are “good” problems to have, and Syracuse coaches will absolutely sort everything out.