Syracuse Football: Moe Neal could become an Orange rushing legend

Moe Neal heads into his senior season on the verge of becoming a top 10 rusher for a Syracuse football program with a storied history of running backs.

Syracuse football running back Moe Neal came to the Orange prior to the 2016 campaign and has quietly rushed his way into the Syracuse record books.

2016 was a significant year in Syracuse football program history — not for the success on the field, as the Orange went 4-8 for the second consecutive season — but because of the people who came to campus that year.

Including Neal, Syracuse brought in fellow recruits including Sam Heckel, Rex Culpepper, Sean Riley, Evan Foster, and Kendall Coleman, among others. In total, this recruiting class, when healthy, projects 11 guys to be listed as a starter or first backup on this year’s Cuse depth chart.

2016 is also the year that brought current coach Dino Babers to the Salt City. Babers told everyone to be patient that it would take time, but after three years on campus, Syracuse has seen their first real taste of success in many years with a 10-3 season in 2018.

Over the last three years, the Orange have put up some historic offensive numbers, with the second-highest three year scoring stretch in school history, averaging 386.67 points per season (1996-1998 Syracuse averaged 452 points per season) including the first time in history the Orange scored 500 points in a season with  523 in 2018.

Most of the headlines were generated, reasonably so, towards former Orange quarterback Eric Dungey, and even Lou Groza award winner Andre Szymt after he led the country in points per game at 11.6 in 2018. While his importance has overlooked or his impact in the turnaround, Neal’s career statistical output has been overshadowed during his time at Syracuse.

Neal currently is 5th in program history with 5.44 yards per carrier (minimum of 200 career carries) according to the Syracuse Football 2019 Media Guide. in total yards, Neal sits at 1,714 yards after compiling 869 yards on the ground last season on 155 attempts.

Going into his final campaign if healthy Neal is expected to be RB1 for the Cuse with a heavy load of carries coming his way and only needing another 748 yards to secure a position in the top 10 for rushing yards in team history.

During Neal’s time at Syracuse, the team went from 449 rushing attempts in 2016 to 479 attempts in 2017 before a major jump to 602 in 2018. Even though 602 rushing attempts in a single year the most for a Babers’ coached team, it is not far from the norm.

Before coming to Syracuse, Babers was a head coach for four seasons, two at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green where his teams averaged 529.5 rushing attempts per year with only one season, his first, failing to reach 500.

In 2019, expect Syracuse to come back down towards the average and possible finding a home around 550 rushing attempts as they try to replace 51.8 percent of their carries from a year prior. That is including a team-high 184 from Dungey. With new quarterback Tommy DeVito coming in, expect Syracuse to rely on Neal and transfer Abdul Adams to take pressure off the young signal-caller.

The anticipation is for Neal’s rushing attempts to rise if anything this season, but not too dramatically, so as to keep him fresh through a long season. If he rushes 200 times through a projected 13-game schedule (12 regular-season games and a bowl game) that would put Neal around 15 carries-per-game, or about 3.1 more than he averaged last year.

Based on Neal’s career averages, this would have him reach the 1,000-yard rushing goal that he so covets, and the latest to do that in team history since 2012 – when Jerome Smith rumbled to 1,207 yards on the ground.

If Neal can rush for 1,000 yards in 2019, not only would he crack the top 10 in school history he would jump some pretty big names such as David Walker, Dee Brown, and both College and Pro Football Hall of Famer Floyd Little for sixth all-time. To get Neal to fifth it would take a monster season on the ground but not totally improbable as only 1,156 yards to pass James Mungro. A season like Smith in 2012 would put him in the conversation for fourth, needing 1,221 to pass another Hall of Famer Larry Csonka.

To get to 1,200 yards on 200 carries, Neal will need to average over 6 yards per rush, which would put him on the top ten leader board for that as well for a single season and increase his current standing for career ranks.

However, that may not be very realistic. Neal’s average per attempt has been benefited from a shockingly low number of yards lost on the ground, only losing nine last season and seeing decreases every year. But with a stat that is helped by the system, it takes one negative play whether it is a mix-up by the offensive line or fumble and recovered for a big loss to pile up 10 or more yards loss on a single snap to count on that number improving this year.

Top ten is in reach for Neal with all the factors considered and with good health this year so I fully expect him to make history for the Orange this season. If Neal wants to crack the top five in school history while only averaging five yards per carry he will then need to see a jump from 155 carries to about 231.

With Adams and Fredericks and the tempo of how Syracuse plays, don’t forecast Neal to go too far over 200, unless a trip to the College Football Playoff comes to fruition.