Syracuse Mets: Top prospect Anthony Kay struggling after recent promotion

Anthony Kay dazzled in Double-A Binghamton but hasn’t found his footing with the Syracuse Mets. Here’s why he hasn’t performed & how he can turn it around.

Anthony Kay, one of the top prospects in the New York Mets organization, has made four starts in Triple-A with the Syracuse Mets and is on the cusp of the Major Leagues.

Kay dominated the competition at Double-A His performance there helped him jump up to the MLB.com top prospect charts to land 97th in baseball after not being ranked in the preseason, and up to third in the Mets’ organization. The success he saw early on however has not followed him to Syracuse.

Since the promotion, Kay is 0-3 in his four starts with an eye-popping 9.64 ERA.

In only 14 innings of work so far Kay as averaged 3.5 innings per outing which is far lower than his 5.5 innings for the Rumble Ponies, primarily due to ineffectiveness more than limiting workload on his young arm.

The most jarring statistic that seems to explain Kay’s struggles is the home run rate. In 66.1 innings in Binghamton Kay only surrendered a pair of home runs.

While in Kay’s last start in Buffalo on June 29, Kay gave up a two in just one game and four total already. The increased home run rate shows about 2.57 HR/9 and a gaudy 19 percent home per fly ball rate which is slightly less than eight times his 2.6 percent average in Double-A.

Giving up more long balls means more hard-hit balls. According to Fangraphs Kay has given up 11 line drives which is 22 percent of all batted balls against Kay in Triple-A. That number is up from 15 percent earlier in the season at the lower levels.

Triple-A not only features more polished and closer to Major League talent to explain the struggles of Kay but there is probably another factor that is plaguing all of Triple-A and Major League pitchers as well.

2019 has seen home runs spike for the Major Leagues and Triple-A alike and it is no coincidence that it is the first year of the Major League ball being adopted by the highest level in the minors.

According to Brian Buckley of the Toledo Blade, the International League as a whole is hitting a home run once every 30 plate appearances which are down from 46.3 plate appearances in 2018.

The causes of this have been disputed. Commissioner Rob Manfred has indicated on multiple occasions that he believes it is the pill in the center of the ball that allows it to “fly truer.”

Dr. Meredith Wills for The Athletic studied baseballs from several different years and found some other factors that can explain this as well including; seam height, the smoothness of the leather and how round the ball is in 2019. .

Whether Kay is struggling with the baseball or mechanical issues he will have to adjust to complete his ultimate goal and make the Major Leagues. The same baseball is present at the Major League level and if there are flaws to Kay’s stuff or mechanics his rate will just continue to rise against the top tier talent.

If Kay can make these adjustments, his time in Syracuse could potentially be a short stay. The New York Mets potentially could shop a few starting pitchers before the July 31st trade deadline. Kay might not make it before the Minor League season ends but with only Jacob deGrom feeling like a lock in the 2020 New York Mets’ rotation expect to see Kay do whatever he can to make himself a case for a move to the Big Apple.