Syracuse football had their best season since 2001 last year. Although one expert says the team just “got lucky” in 2018 with their success.
I won’t lie, Syracuse football has been mostly atrocious during the 21st century. The Orange have been .500 or worse in 13 years out of 18 possible opportunities.
So when SU went 10-3 and had their best year since 2001 last year, it made the victory and the moments that much sweeter.
Although apparently everyone didn’t feel that way. ESPN College Football Columnist David Hale in one of his latest posts suggests Syracuse “got lucky” in 2018:
"“But there was another big reason for the huge turnaround, too, and it might also prove to be a huge red flag for 2019: Turnovers. Historically, turnovers are an incredibly volatile statistic. Luck plays a huge role, and it’s rare that one team manages to keep a high turnover margin year after year. It’s one of the stats most prone to regression to the mean.Which leads us to Syracuse.In 2017, Syracuse’s defense ranked 115th nationally in takeaways with just 12. The Orange were 113th nationally with a -52 margin in points off turnovers. And they were 121st nationally with a turnover margin of -12.In 2018, Syracuse was 5th in turnover margin (+13), sixth in points off turnovers margin (+65) and third in takeaways (31).That’s a lot of volatility, even for a statistical metric that’s prone to volatility. In fact, just looking at points off turnovers margin, the standard deviation for change from one year to the next is about 31 points. Syracuse’s change was 117. In fact, Syracuse’s 19 additional takeaways from one year to the next is the most by any Power 5 program in the past decade.”"
You can check out his full column that features analytics, studies, and trends to see his full take.
While there’s certainly some merit to David’s argument, I would tend to lean the other way. Turnovers are volatile and sometimes you can get lucky, but let’s make no mistake about it the Orange are more talented than they’ve been in the last decade.
Kendall Coleman and Alton Robinson both finished with 10 sacks each in 2018 and that doesn’t include the quarterback hurries or pressures. Which by the way Alton had (56 quarterback pressures) the most among returning ACC edge defenders per PFF.
As a team, SU collected a team record 43 sacks. When you can get to the quarterback, he has to throw the ball before he wants too.
Which makes the lives of your secondary even easier, but here’s the thing: Syracuse has a deep secondary. They don’t need that extra help, so having it is gravy.
"“In 2018, Syracuse was 5th in turnover margin (+13), sixth in points off turnovers margin (+65) and third in takeaways (31)”, per David Hale."
Some massive numbers to be sure, but here’s the thing: the majority of the players who forced all of those turnovers are returning sans their linebacking corps (Kielan Whitner, Ryan Guthrie) and Chris Slayton on the defensive line.
So the ability to repeat or at the very least minimize the large turnover swing is in Syracuse’s favor.
Also, take a gander at the schedule: Week 3 vs Clemson stands out, but beyond that, there’s nothing impossible:
- NC State: No Ryan Finley.
- Louisville: Program is in disarray.
- Non-conference schedule poses no big challenges (Liberty, Maryland, Western Michigan, Holy Cross).
Give me talent, give me schedule, give me coaching and I’ll bet on the Syracuse football squad being closer to what they were in 2018 in lieu of a massive dropoff.