Syracuse Football: An inside look at the analytics for SU vs Pitt in Week 6

Who is going to win between the Syracuse football squad and the Pitt Panthers? Our Paul A. Esden Sr. gives an inside look at the analytics of this matchup.

The sixth game of the 2018 Syracuse Orange Campaign is against Pittsburgh University. But before we move forward let us take a brief look back on last week’s game.

The Orange is the New Fast is in a Catch 22 situation, a chicken and the egg type scenario if you will. We need 4 and 5 star recruits to beat the elite teams in college football. You do not get those recruits unless you beat the elite teams in college football.

Another Catch 22 thought: We lost the game to Clemson due to coaching breakdowns periodically throughout the game. We were in a position to beat Clemson because of our coaching staff. What is the point you ask? We have to remain flexible in our play calling on both sides of the ball and keep our expectations reasonable.

For the offensive side of the ball for both the Florida State game and Clemson game we attempted to run the ball straight ahead in short yardage situations and almost without exception we failed to convert. This is confusing as our innovative play calling is what separates us from the pack but when we get in these short yardage situations we stick to smash mouth football which against some of our opponents it is an uphill battle to say the least. This resulted in field goals versus touchdowns and ultimately cost the Orange a 5-0 start.

On the defensive side of the ball it was déjà vu. Playing one of the top teams in the country we knocked their starting quarterback out of the game, effectively putting their playoff hopes on their third string quarterback. Late in the game and trailing, Clemson decided not to put their hopes in the arm of a true freshman but to run the ball. We failed to sell out on the run and make him beat us. To be clear our defense was the star of this game, Kendall Coleman stepped up time and time again bringing the big play and pressuring whoever was taking snaps for the Tigers.

To summarize we need to understand our own strengths and weaknesses and play to them. Our coaching staff has done an amazing job but sometimes need to take a step back and play to win the game. With that being said we are 4-1 and now need to look forward to our trip to Pennsylvania.

As always let’s look at last year’s numbers:

2017 Rankings Comparison, Syracuse vs Pittsburgh:

• Total Offense: SU (23rd) vs Pitt (97th)
• Rushing: SU (70th) vs Pitt (85th)
• Passing: SU (18th) vs Pitt (73rd)
• Total Defense: SU (105th) vs Pitt (69th)
• Rushing: SU (98th) vs Pitt (41th)
• Passing: SU (97th) vs Pitt (105th)

Now let’s look at this year’s numbers to date:

2018 Rankings Comparison, Syracuse vs Pittsburgh:

• Total Offense: SU (26th) vs Pitt (111th)
• Rushing: SU (23rd) vs Pitt (54th)
• Passing: SU (54th) vs Pitt (118th)
• Total Defense: SU (89th) vs Pitt (102nd)
• Rushing: SU (75th) vs Pitt (104th)
• Passing: SU (87th) vs Pitt (76th)

On paper this looks like a slam dunk. After breaking down the game data I would tell you that some of these numbers are offset by the games that have been played.

Key insights for Syracuse:

• Eric Dungey is arguably one of the best and most experienced quarterback in the ACC. His statistics this year are solid but not what we have seen in the past. I believe we have put restrictions on him that are holding him back. To take us to the next level and go above and beyond just making a bowl, we need to take off the training wheels and let him do what he does best. Play exciting, inspiring and Heisman consideration worthy football. We all need to sit back and enjoy the ride as the season is almost half over and Eric’s last campaign.

Keys insights for Pitt:

• Kenny Pickett is a Sophomore QB from Oakhurst, NJ. His first start of his collegiate career was to lead the Panthers in an upset win over Miami in the last game of the 2017 campaign, so he has a lot of potential and is only getting better each game. Pittsburgh is a balanced team with the run and the pass but Kenny is capable of stretching the field having a completion of at least 40 yards in four out of five games this season.
• The rushing game for Pittsburgh will again put the Orange to the test as they are averaging 6 yards per carry from their top two running backs and just shy of 200 yards per game on the ground. These stats come against some serious contenders in Penn State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and UCF.

So now we have looked at the numbers, some key insights and now is the time for the prediction. The odds makers have this one about right with the Orange favored by -3.5 points on the road.  OITNF will win bringing their season total to 5 WINS!  One shy of the Quest for 6. Remember to be loud, be proud, BE ORANGE.