Bubble Watch: Syracuse Basketball Versus the Rest of the Bubble

Syracuse Basketball you know what time of year it is. Its Bubble time and the NCAA Tournament at-large field is considerably smaller than it was weeks ago.  Inside the Loud House takes a look at who’s left and how Syracuse compares to them.

Syracuse Basketball looks favorable to the rest of the bubble at this late stage in the selection process. The conference tournaments have already begun, but in March, anything can happen. However, barring any unlikely bids being punched, the Orange look like they might just squeeze in as one of the last four in.

We take a look at who’s left on the bubble and how Syracuse stacks up next to them. Note: all records and stats are according to ESPN.com statistics.

Wake Forest (19-13):

Best Wins: Miami, Louisville, Virginia Tech

Bad Losses: Clemson (twice)

Record Versus Top 50: 3-10

Road W-L Record: 6-8

My Projection: Safely In (Last Four Byes)

Analysis: The Demon Deacons have 3 quality wins to pair with 6 road wins. They’re in.

USC (24-9):

Best Wins: SMU, UCLA

Bad Losses: Arizona State, Utah, California

Record Versus Top 50: 2-6

Road W-L Record: 6-5

My Projection: Last Four In

Analysis: The Trojans have more wins than losses on the road which makes up for their poor performances versus the Top 50. They’ll squeeze in, but their resume is paper thin.

Vanderbilt (19-14):

Best Wins: Florida (3 times), Iowa State, Arkansas, South Carolina

Bad Losses: Missouri, Bucknell, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee

Record Versus Top 50: 6-8

Road W-L Record: 5-6

My Projection: Last Four In

Analysis: A week ago, I would have had the Commodores out. However a run in the SEC tournament has propelled them to safely in. Three wins against Florida, along with a decent road record, and several quality wins equal a spot in the NCAA tournament.

Iowa (18-14):

Best Wins: Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa State

Bad Losses: Illinois (twice), Nebraska, Omaha, Memphis

Record Versus Top 50: 5-8

Road W-L Record: 3-7

My Projection: Last Four Out

Analysis: The Haweyes have a lot in common with Syracuse. They have the same number of quality wins, have one more road win, and have their share of bad losses like Syracuse. However, they have a few wins against the Top 25 like Syracuse. The difference, they have no wins in the Top 10 (at the time of play), something Syracuse has three of.

Illinois (17-14):

Best Wins: VCU

Bad Losses: Penn State (twice), Rutgers, Winthrop

Record Versus Top 50: 5-9

Road W-L Record: 3-6

My Projection: Last Four Out

Analysis: Illinois lost to a horrible Rutgers team to end the season then followed it with a a loss to an average Michigan team. Simply put, they don’t have enough to get in.

Kansas State (20-13):

Best Wins: Baylor (twice), West Virginia

Bad Losses: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Tennessee, TCU

Record Versus Top 50: 4-9

Road W-L Record: 5-6

My Projection: Last Four In

Analysis: The Wildcats have clawed their way back onto the bubble in the Big 12 tournament. They have beaten Baylor twice this season which is why they’re are on the right side of the bubble. Couple that with an average road record and a victory versus West Virginia earlier in conference play and you’re probably in.

Rhode Island (22-9):

Best Wins: Cincinnati, VCU

Bad Losses: Fordham, La Salle, Richmond, Valparaiso

Record Versus Top 50: 2-3

Road W-L Record: 7-5

My Projection: Last Four Out

Analysis: Rhode Island passes the eye test no problem, but with only two quality wins, a mediocre road record, and some bad losses, it makes their resume rather thin. They have to probably get the automatic bid in the Atlantic 10 to get in.

Nevada (27-6):

Best Wins: None

Bad Losses: Utah State, Fresno State (twice), Iona, San Diego State

Record Versus Top 50: 0-1, Top 100: 9-5

Road W-L Record: 8-4

My Projection: Probably In (with Mountain West Conference Automatic Bid), but if not then Probably Out (Next Four Out)

Analysis: Too many bad losses and no great wins to speak of, the Pack need to win the Mountain West to get in. They do have a case with a 9-5 record versus the Top 100 and an 8-4 record on the road, but that’s about it for their at-large case.

Illinois State (26-6):

Best Wins: Wichita State

Bad Losses: Murray State, Tulsa, San Francisco, TCU

Record Versus Top 50: 1-2

Road W-L Record: 9-4

My Projection: Last Four Out

Analysis: I badly wish I could say this team was in because the eye test shows how talented they are, but with only one quality win, and several bad losses it looks unlikely.

Now Compare these teams to Syracuse Basketball:

Syracuse:

Best Wins: Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Miami, Wake Forest

Bad Losses: Uconn, St. Johns, Georgetown, Boston College

Record Versus Top 50: 5-8, Top 100: 8-9

Road W-L Record: 2-8

My Projection: Last Four In

Analysis: Syracuse Basketball has 3 Top 10 wins, is 6-8 versus the top 50 and 8-9 versus the top 100. One of the biggest things to like on Syracuse Basketball’s resume is they were 10-8 in the toughest conference in the nation (the ACC). They have 5 wins versus the currently projected field and have beaten several fellow bubble teams like Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Wake Forest along the way to show they belong. Only conference tournaments will tell if they will get one of the last four spots. As of right now, I think the Orange are more likely in than not, but the road record does look bad. The committee can probably forgive the bad losses earlier in the season, but the losses on the road never changed. Its going to be a tense weekend for Orange fans sweating this one out.