What are Syracuse Basketball’s Chances as a #10 Seed?

Everyone agrees, Syracuse basketball has made a pretty fantastic run into the Final Four this season, but they are very much the underdog as a #10 seed against #1 UNC today. Houston’s tournament history doesn’t help Syracuse’s cause at all, but a few other historical trends do.

Here is a brief rundown of what college basketball experts have to say about Syracuse basketball in this year’s Final Four: Syracuse has little to no chance to win the championship. That about does it I guess. The historical trends of the tournament, however, gives Syracuse fans a slightly better chance, albeit, not great.

This is the third time the Final four will be hosted in Houston. Houston received the honor for the first time in 1971, back when seeding wasn’t even a thing. That year, the final four teams were Villanova, Western Kentucky, Kansas, and UCLA. UCLA won it all over Villanova, but that shouldn’t be a surprise since is was the 7th UCLA national championship out of the ten they won between 1964 and 1975 (12 years). Two of the teams in the 1971 Final Four did not have byes in the first round (Villanova and Western Kentucky).

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The second time was 2011 when #4 Kentucky, #3 Connecticut, #11 VCU, and #8 Butler were the Final Four teams. That year, Connecticut won the championship in a shoot out of epic proportions by beating Butler 53-41 (I jest).

So, Houston’s history tells us that the highest seed in the tournament (assuming UCLA after winning four straight was the overall #1) wins the whole thing by beating a low seed from the other side of the bracket when the city hosts the games. This would mean UNC would beat Oklahoma (or Villanova – toss-up since both are #2 seeds) for the championship this year. That’s not so good for Syracuse basketball.

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On the other hand, in Houston, only one of three Final Four or championship games have ever had a team score more than 70. That was both Villanova and Western Kentucky in 1971, when Villanova won 92-89 in double overtime to get to the final game. The high among all other games was when Butler put up 70 against VCU in 2011.

Low scoring games are a good thing for Syracuse basketball, which relies heavily on the formula of a raunchy and pesky defense and timely shot making down the stretch. Essentially, keep it close and let your defense create extra opportunities at the end.

That’s all well and good, but there is one trend that, to this point, has been the most important in predicting Syracuse basketball in this year’s tournament: Syracuse is 2-0 as the lower seed in the tournament. It’s a pretty tacky way of getting to the point, but for all you ‘Cuse fans out there, it’s important to realize that Syracuse is playing a different brand of basketball than the other Final Four teams, which gives them an edge. Yes, UNC beat Syracuse in both prior meetings this season, but Syracuse was a different team then.

So, I beg of you, Syracuse fans, enjoy the ride, don’t be too heartbroken if UNC does what is expected of them today, but if (when?) Syracuse pulls out the victory today to get to the championship, make sure those “experts” know just how wrong they were. Loud and proud, a million miles an hour. Only time will tell if the dream can continue, but with such an eclectic group, Syracuse has the chance to be the miracle.