Syracuse Football Behind the Numbers: PER Stats Edition

For stats nerds, there may be a silver lining hidden in Syracuse football’s rough 2015 season.

The NCAA, its member schools, and third-party organizations count everything in college football. Unlike baseball, this was not always the case in college football. At one time, a team could be judged on a few basic stats: yards per rush/pass, points per game, turnover margin, and individual yardage averages. Now, the game has a host of stats that tell a much different story than the one the basic stats tell.

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For Syracuse football, the average fan sees the team do things like score 25.5 points per game, give up 33.8 points per game, and turn the ball over 1.5 times per game and know the Syracuse was not a good team. The easiest way to tell is to see what the leaders accomplished in each category. Syracuse was 80th in points scored per game, Baylor was first at 46.6 (21.1 better). Syracuse was 95th in points given up per game, Wisconsin was first at 13.7 (20.1 better). Syracuse was 58th in turnovers per game, Navy was first at 0.6 (0.9 better).

For those keeping track at home, Syracuse went 4-8, Baylor went 10-3, Wisconsin went 10-3, and Navy went 11-2.

The basic stats tell us Syracuse was just bad. What about PER stats that don’t usually get looked at? These are the stats that tell you how explosive a team is. These stats tell the story of what could have been if a few little tweaks were made to control for some behaviors that coaches generally don’t want their players engaging in. Behaviors like holding onto the ball tightly, not dropping passes, going down on first contact, running weak and shallow routes, arm tackling, missed tackles, not stripping the ball when in coverage, and poor blocking. How does Syracuse stack up in these?

The eye test told most fans that Syracuse did the little things poorly, but made up for a lot of that with big plays. Remember those penalties against Pittsburgh, Louisville, and South Florida during crucial times that seemingly ended the games? The little things…

Syracuse was 14th in the nation in yards per point (lower is better, because it means you score more often when you have the ball). They scored one point for every 12.2 yards of offense. The best in the nation was Kansas State at 11.3. Kansas State went 6-7, so clearly this stat doesn’t mean much… or so it seems.
However, a deeper look into this stat reveals that every team ranked between Kansas State and Syracuse won at least 9 games and finished at least third in their conference.
Interestingly, Syracuse was 118th in the nation in offensive yards per game (310.5) and Kansas State was 109th (333.1). For comparison sake, Baylor was 26th in yards per point (12.9) and 1st in yards per game (602.2).
Syracuse was 52nd in the nation with .404 points per play. For comparison, Baylor was 4th at .548, Bowling Green was 14th at .504, North Carolina (best of the ACC) was 2nd at .586, and Boston College (worst of the ACC) was 126th (out of 128) at .164.
Syracuse was 127th in the nation with 63 offensive plays per game. For comparison, Baylor was 4th with 85.1 and Bowling Green was 7th with 83.7.
Syracuse was 109th in the nation in 3-and-out percentage (how often the team punted after only three plays in a drive) at 29.5%.
Syracuse was 121st in the nation in number of penalty first downs given per game at 2.4. Florida was 1st with .6.
Syracuse was also 59th in the nation in yards per penalty at 8.9. Kansas State was 1st at 7.5.
Syracuse was 77th in the nation in opponents plays per game at 75.4. Wisconsin was 1st at 63.1. This means that Syracuse averaged less offensive plays per game than the best defense in college football allowed. That’s what we call a bad stat.
Syracuse was 94th in the nation in time of possession percentage at 47.17%. Baylor was 102nd with 46.56% and Bowling Green was 105th with 46.33%. The best in the nation was Arkansas with 58.10%.
Only three of the top ten in points per game were even in the top 50 in time of possession percentage: Oklahoma at 49th, TCU at 38th, and Houston at 37th. There is virtually no statistical correlation between points scored and time of possession.
Syracuse gave up 472.5 yards per game (6.3 per play) while giving up 75.4 plays per game.

So, what do these stats tell us about Syracuse football? Syracuse would have been much better is they just could have kept the ball for more plays. If Syracuse could simply have averaged 77 plays per game (would have been 33rd in the nation in that category), they could have gained roughly 67 yards more per game (78th in the nation) and scored 31.1 points per game (47th in the nation).

Nov 28, 2015; Syracuse, NY, USA; Syracuse Orange running back Jordan Fredericks (22) makes a cut during the fourth quarter of a game against the Boston College Eagles at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse won 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

In a game with a finite amount of time like football, when one team runs more plays, the other must run less. For sheer discussion, with almost no science behind it, if Syracuse ran those 14 more plays per game (increase from 63 to 77), the opponents would run 14 less and Syracuse would have given up the least number of plays per game in college football at 61.4. They would also give up roughly 85 yards less per game (despite allowing the 112th worst yards per play) and lowered their opponents points per game to 27.57.

Imagine what Syracuse’s record could have been if they averaged almost four points more per game than they gave up.

A couple other observations from these numbers shows that gaining as many yards as possible and having a lot of possessions matter in football. Apparently AD Mark Coyle did some homework before settling on Dino Babers. How about that Boston College victory? Seeing these numbers certainly puts that 20-17 moral triumph at home for Scott Shafer in perspective, doesn’t it? Did you know the most Boston College scored against a FBS team in 2015 was 17? Just wondering.

Basically, the silver lining for Syracuse football in 2015 was that the team had the athletes to make some big plays, but played too conservative, too slow, played from behind too often, and committed a substantial number of mistakes. Simply put, they had a chance, but they were just too undisciplined and too conservative to benefit from their explosiveness.