Syracuse Football: Behind the Numbers

Is there a correlation between number of plays run and wins? If so, does a fast offensive system benefit Syracuse?

Starting this week, we are going to do a weekly feature that delves deeper into what the statistics tell us about our Syracuse Orange teams. On Wednesday, you’ll get to see what the numbers are telling us about the Orange Men’s basketball team. Today though, it’s Monday Morning Quarterback time and we’re going to look at some data about the Orange football team. Specifically, addressing some of the misconceptions about running the spread offense in college football and whether or not the data says it could work at Syracuse.

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Over the weekend, I wrote of this little diddy about the general idea about what the offense in Syracuse could look like and whether the “gimmick” could work. Let me give you a word of warning though: statistical analysis is more of an art than a science. I do this for a living and no matter how much people want to believe that data can answer all questions, it’s just not true. Data is nothing more than the trending of previous result for the purpose of predicting what “could” happen in the future under similar circumstances.

Take climate change and global warming. All the data we have at our disposal only tells us two certainties: the Earth’s climate is warming than it was in years past (fact) and carbon emissions impacts that trend (fact). We can predict that it will continue to rise. We can predict fewer emissions will positively impact the warming trend. We can predict that we need Dennis Quaid to tell us that the Earth is going to enter another ice age due to the “paradox” of global warming. But in the end, there are just too many variables to be “certain.”

Sports statistics are very much like that. Here are some interesting little tidbits, but take them with a grain of salt:

Syracuse has three winning seasons in the last 14 years, leading to the hiring of Dino Babers.
Baylor had two winning seasons in the 14 years, leading to the hiring of Art Briles.
The year before Briles took over at Baylor, they ran 73 plays per game (65th in the nation).
In Briles first year, the Bears ran 66 per game.
In his second year, the Bears ran 68 per game.
Baylor finished 4-8 in each of those first two seasons under Briles.
In his third year, Baylor ran 73 plays per game (24th in the nation).
Baylor finished 7-6 and went to a bowl game that year (2010).
In year four, Baylor ran 81 plays per game (4th in the nation).
Baylor finished 10-3 and finished in the top 25 for the first time since 1986.
Baylor has had a winning record each year 2010-2015, with bowl games in each season.
Syracuse between 2003 and 2008 had two years of Paul Pasqualoni and four years of Greg Robinson.
Their best record was 6-6 (both years under Pasqualoni).
The most plays they averaged in any of those years was 67.
Doug Marrone was hired before the 2009 season.
Syracuse ran 67 and 66 plays per game in each of Marrone’s first two years, respectively.
In 2011, Syracuse ran 70 plays per game.
In 2012, Syracuse ran 80 plays per game.
In 2013, Scott Shafer’s first season, Syracuse ran 74 plays per game.
In 2014, Syracuse ran 69 plays per game.
In 2015, Shafer’s last season as head coach, they ran 63 plays per game.
The three winning records for Syracuse occurred in 2010, 2012, and 2013.
Ryan Nassib was the quarterback for the first two winning seasons.
The last winning record before 2010 for Syracuse was 2001.
In 2001, Syracuse went 10-3 and finished in the top 25.
The quarterback of that team was Donovan McNabb.
Between 2008 and 2011, Baylor’s recruiting classes were ranked (per scout.com) 55, 44, 51, and 52 respectively.
Between those same years, Syracuse’s recruiting classes were ranked 51, 102, 53, and 51 respectively.
Baylor ranked 23, 26, and 30 in recruiting for 2012-2014.
Syracuse ranked 54, 73, and 53 in recruiting for 2012-2014.
Bowling Green averaged 73 plays the year before Babers arrived.
Bowling Green averaged 81 and 85 plays in Babers’ two years, respectively.
Bowling Green won eight games in the first year and 10 games so far in year two.
Bowling Green has votes in AP and Coaches’ polls right now.
If Shafer remained Syracuse head coach for 2016, and his offensive plays per game trend continued, Syracuse would run approximately 56 plays per game and rank last in the nation.
Syracuse has never won 10 game in three straight years.

Now, what do these 36 little pieces of data tell us? First, although it cannot be considered causation due to the number of variables unaccounted for, there is at least a correlation between Syracuse winning since 2003 and the number of offensive plays they run. Arguably the best Syracuse football season since 2001 was 2012 when thy went 8-5 with a win in the Pinstripe Bowl . It was Ryan Nassib’s last season and propelled him into discussions as a potential first round draft pick. He may not have been picked in the first round, but just think if Marrone had not talked him self out of it and the Bills had Nassib instead of E.J. Manuel. The potential for better results exists, because, well, Manuel is a bad NFL quarterback.

Other things we know include Baylor football being about as bad as Syracuse before hiring Art Briles. Briles took average recruiting classes (comparable in ranking to Syracuse) and turned the program around in the Big 12. Baylor, Bowling Green, and Syracuse have shown improvements in win/loss record when they run more plays. Again, this is not causation, but the correlation cannot be ignored.

Close your eyes for a moment (theoretically, because you need to read this). Picture Syracuse going into the 2023 bowl game with a chance to complete a third straight season with 10 or more wins (on the back of a sixth straight winning season 2018-2023). Imagine all the stuff Coach Babers wanted you to imagine at his press conference. Now, imagine a top 25 ranking for the fourth time in those six winning years. Now open your eyes.

As a fan, would you be happy about that? Would you argue that running a ton of plays is just a gimmick that doesn’t “really” work? Would you claim that defense is the way to prosperity? Or would you look your friends in the eye and tell them Syracuse is a player on the national stage?

A final question for Orange fans: Do you like slow offenses and stingy defenses so much that you wouldn’t take a chance on Babers if you were AD?