Yes, I realize that just yesterday I predicted that Florida State would win 31-21. But that was before learning that Dalvin Cook will not be playing due to an ankle injury.
That is huge news for Syracuse. It absolutely opens the door for them to steal this game if they play exceptionally well. It would probably still require a pretty bad game from FSU, but it’s absolutely possible.
I don’t think people quite realize just how vital Dalvin Cook is to the Florida State offense. He’s accounted for a whopping 85% of their rushing yards this season. He’s also averaged an astonishing 8.2 yards per carry. The rest of the FSU runners average under four yards per carry. He’s also scored 11 of the 13 rushing touchdowns and has accounted for almost 40% of the Seminoles total offense and scoring.
Take away 40% of any teams offense and they are going to struggle, even a top 25 team. Before this news I thought SU would have a chance to keep the game reasonable if they played hard and didn’t give up too many big plays. Now I think they have an actual shot at winning. It’s still a long shot based on Florida State’s excellent defense and the speed of the rest of their offense, but it’s certainly more realistic now.
The Syracuse football team is going to need to take advantage of this situation. They need to stuff the rest of the Florida State runningbacks, which will probably consist of Sophomore Johnathan Vickers and freshman Jacques Patrick. So far the two have combined for just 21 carries, 59 yards and one touchdown. While those numbers aren’t very good, keep in mind that with a back like Dalvin Cook, their touches were limited.
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They are also going to have to make sure they are on top of their coverage, as I’m guessing Florida State might look to pass the ball more. This is still concerning to anyone who’s been watching SU. Their pass coverage has been porous at times this season to say the least. They haven’t been beaten deep too often this year, but they’ve been torched by screens and short passes. They need to play more press coverage to stop FSU’s wide receivers from getting open immediately and having room to run after the catch.
The speed of their entire receiving core is still going to test the Syracuse football defense, so they need to clamp down and play with focus and awareness. One thing that might make matters easier for Syracuse is the fact that starting quarterback Everett Golson has been banged up the past week and missed some practice time as well. He’s scheduled to start this week, but we’ll have to keep an eye on how effective he’ll be throwing and moving in the pocket.
Syracuse football can give up yards, but they need to buckle down in the red zone and hold Florida State to field goals. That is definitely doable, as FSU is 110th in the FBS in red zone efficiency, converting only 48% of their opportunities into touchdowns. Syracuse will need to do even better than those numbers to win, and I think it’s entirely possible without Dalvin Cook.
It’s now a whole new football game and the loss of Cook can change the outcome entirely. I think this turns into a slugfest and at the end of it, Syracuse prevails 21-20 on a last minute touchdown. This team has been so close all year, and they finally turn the season around with a huge win. The time is right, the situation is perfect, and the luck finally turns SU’s way. Go Cuse!
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