Syracuse is coming into it’s game against Virginia riding a two-game losing streak. They are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 45-24 drubbing by USF this past Saturday. While hopes were very high after a 3-0 start, now there is the sobering reality that if SU loses this week, they are back to .500 with the toughest part of their schedule yet to come.
With that in mind, let’s take a quick preview of the game against Virginia and evaluate some of the key players and units for Virginia, and what the Orange will have to do to counter them.
Virginia comes into the game with a 1-4 record. Their only victory was against William and Mary. However, they only lost by a touchdown each to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, so clearly they are a team that has some talent.
Oct 10, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Matt Johns (15) runs with the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers defensive lineman Ejuan Price (5) chases during the third quarter at Heinz Field. PITT won 26-19. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
On the offensive side of the ball, Virginia is a much more competent passing team than a running team. Their quarterback, Matt Johns, has thrown for 1198 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s been a very streaky player and has had problems with accuracy at times, but overall has looked pretty solid and has a cannon arm.
Their running game is not exceptionally potent. Their lead back, Taquan Mizzell has just 196 yards and no touchdowns. They’ve rushed for a total of 514 yards as a team, which is just over 100 yards a game. That’s not great.
In the receiving game, Mizzell is a stud out of the backfield with 340 yards and three touchdowns. Their other big threat is wide receiver Canaan Severin, who has 348 yards and two touchdowns.
Look for Virginia to pass it early and often. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of quick screens or short routes in the flat to Mizzell. I think Johns will also take a few shots deep to test our very shaky secondary. Johns already has six passes of 35 yards or more, including touchdowns of 80 and 75 yards.
Syracuse football is going to need to play a lot better coverage than they’ve shown lately if they are going to slow down Virginia. Wigham and Winfield both need to step up at the corner positions, but the biggest question mark is going to be our linebackers against their backs and receivers across the middle. We have been gashed on run after the catch and need to do a much better job of attacking at the line of scrimmage and taking good angles.
Oct 10, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers wide receiver Dontez Ford (19) runs after a catch as Virginia Cavaliers safety Quin Blanding (3) defends during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. PITT won 26-19. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Defensively, the Cavaliers are anchored by sophomore safety Quin Blanding, who has 36 tackles and a fumble recovery this year. He was named as a third team, pre-season All-American and is living up to that billing. He’s fast, strong, and athletic; the perfect combination for a big hitting, run stopping safety.
They also have a very solid cornerback in Maurice Canady. Canady has played very well on the outside and is a very good tackler. He is also the Cavaliers kickoff and punt return specialist and has already returned a punt for a touchdown this year. He has very good speed, so it will be interesting to see how he matches up with Estime and Ishmael in pass coverage.
Their linebacking core is led by Micah Kiser, who has already recorded 4.5 sacks on the season and eight tackles for a loss, both team highs. They are moderately effective at stopping the run, giving up just over 150 yards per game. That is good for 62nd nationally. For reference, SU is 44th against the run, even after the LSU and USF games.
If Syracuse is going to win, they are going to need to really test that front seven of Virginia. They will need to run the ball effectively inside the tackles as well as on the option. They will also need Dungey to step up and play consistent the entire game. He was a little rusty last week, and by the time he got fully into the swing of things the game was already getting out of hand. He can’t have that same slow start this week.
This game is going to be a battle. Virginia is desperate for a win, and Syracuse is desperate to prove that last week’s huge loss to USF was a fluke. They definitely still have the ability to win games down the stretch, they just need to play smart and focus.
I see this as a back and forth affair. I think Virginia will continue to exploit the weak secondary of this Syracuse football team. Syracuse will try and mix up the play calling and hopefully attack the Virginia defensive front. Time of possession could be the deciding factor, and I give that edge to SU since they are a better running team. Even so, I could see this game going down to the wire unless Syracuse can pull out of this defensive funk they got themselves into.
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