I know what you’re thinking. I must have lost my mind, right? Well, the only response I can give is that anything is possible! Before you go and dismiss the Syracuse football team this Saturday as it plays host to LSU, let me break down why I think they have a shot against LSU.
First and foremost is their run defense. Although they bent a little against Central Michigan, there was no break. CMU gained just 109 yards on the ground on forty attempts, good for only 2.9 yards per rush. That means that for the season, SU has allowed only 140 yards on 92 attempts, well under 2 yards per attempt. That’s also good for third nationally in run defense.
Why is this statistic so important? In the two games they’ve played, LSU has thrown the ball for only 145 yards and one touchdown. Conversely, they’ve run it for 677 yards. They’ve been so reliant on the run that they have become very one-dimensional. Does that mean they can’t throw the ball? No, but it does mean that Syracuse has a better chance of staying in the game since their defense is much more adept at stopping the run than the pass.
It will be very interesting to see if LSU goes strength against strength and tries to run it down Syracuse’s throat or if they see the glaring weakness in the secondary and try to go more pass heavy. I think in a lot of ways this is a trap game for LSU. I’m sure they are looking at Syracuse, who barely beat Central Michigan in overtime, and thinking they will easily blow them out. And that is what will be their downfall.
Sep 19, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) breaks a tackle by Auburn Tigers defensive back Tray Matthews (28) on a touchdown run during the third quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. Photo by: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
LSU will try and run the ball at every opportunity and will be met with a much tougher task than they’ve had so far. Fournette, LSU’s lead running back, absolutely dominated both games he’s played. He’s racked up 387 yards and six touchdowns in just two games. Those are heisman-type numbers.
Look for SU to stack the box and try and take away LSU’s strength. If LSU proves they can consistently pass the ball or run it right through the defense, they will probably dominate the game. If they are met with solid resistance and have a hard time on the ground, this is a game that Syracuse football can steal.
Aside from defense, the other main key to the game will be injuries. Can Eric Dungey play this week? What about Ervin Phillips and Steve Ishmael? Is Rob Trudo healthy at center? The Syracuse football team has a bevvy of major injuries (gee, what a surprise). If they can get healthy and not have half of their offensive starters sidelined, it gives them a much better chance of squeaking out a victory.
Sep 19, 2015; Syracuse, NY, USA; Syracuse Orange quarterback Eric Dungey (2) prepares to pitch the ball around Central Michigan Chippewas defensive lineman Blake Serpa (2) during the first quarter at the Carrier Dome. Photo by: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Without Dungey at quarterback, I fear that Syracuse will be in for a long day. Dungey has been incredibly dynamic thus far, making plays with his arm and his legs, and proving to be a nightmare to contain. Even in limited action on Saturday he was the catalyst for SU, running for over 50 yards and a TD and throwing a fearless touchdown under heavy pressure. With him in the lineup, he is the wildcard that gives SU an offensive edge.
The other crucial area where I think Syracuse football has a good shot is on special teams. They’ve already returned a punt for a touchdown and had another long return called back. They also have one of the best punters in the nation in Riley Dixon, and an excellent kicker as well in Cole Murphy.
If Syracuse can win the field position battle and put LSU into very tough spots, it could be the difference in the game. Add in a long kick or punt return and they are in business. Of course it goes both ways, and aside from making big plays themselves, Syracuse needs to stop the big play on special teams. LSU has some incredible speed at pretty much every position, so it will be a big challenge trying to contain them.
In the end, if Dungey plays and if Syracuse can force LSU to be one-dimensional, I think they can win. I realize that’s a big if, but as I said at the beginning of the article, anything is possible. I predict a final score of 20-17, with SU squeaking by on a last second field goal. Feel free to comment below and make your predictions.